About this Training Course
This 4-day training course offers participants the opportunity to explore these challenges, including hands-on application of industry-standard tools and techniques to assess realistic scenarios and associated data. The essential commercial drivers are held in perspective at all times.
The course commences with a brief overview of the critical Business Environment factors within which all Energy industries operate, with pointers to major sources of market uncertainty impacting potentially massive investment decisions. Focus then shifts from the macro-economic, towards the realm of individual project commitments typical of the upstream petroleum sector, outlining key areas of uncertainty within the principal cashflow components. This leads on to various aspects of cashflow analysis and a brief review of the range of key economic and financial indicators at both project and corporate level, including the broad impact of various forms of taxation.
Risk and uncertainty definitions are clarified and linked to definitions of common financial indicators. Common methods of quantifying uncertainties and risks are then described, from simple parametric methods to probabilistic simulations leading to the use of Decision Tree Analysis to analyse problems. These tools are then applied to technical issues over the field life cycle, from exploration risking to the quantification of value of information during field appraisal and on to production forecasting using both deterministic and probabilistic methodology. Human factors involved in identifying risk and quantifying uncertainties are explored, from the preferences implicit in utility theory to the behavioural heuristics which commonly lead to bias in technical judgement.
Risk diversification principles and associated Portfolio Management theory are described on the final day, with some pointers as to how this might find practical application within E&P decision-making. The course concludes with a multi-faceted case study in which ‘management teams’ will have the opportunity to assess a range of asset-related risks, and propose mainly qualitative resource allocation solutions including several political issues.
By the end of this course, participants will be able to:
- Define risk & uncertainty in technical and business opportunities
- Summarise petroleum economics techniques and indicators
- Appreciate fundamentals of financial reporting
- Utilise a range of tools to combine uncertainties and quantify risk
- Evaluate technical risks in exploration and appraisal
- Evaluate technical risks in development planning and production
- Assess commercial uncertainties
- Understand how utility theory drives our risk-reward judgements
- Compare probabilistic vs. multiple deterministic methods
- Understand reserves addition techniques
- Understand the impact of portfolio management in risk and uncertainty
This course will benefit Oil & Gas professionals in the various disciplines including risk management, exploration, audit and finance.
Learning is reinforced by working on case materials to explore uncertainties and risks in the context of production forecasting, cash-flow management, incremental projects and asset portfolio manipulation.
Monte Carlo modelling and Decision Tree analysis software are employed during the course to develop practical skills in risk and portfolio management.
Your expert course leader has been a career commercial specialist and frontline E&P Commercial Manager, with nearly 40 years’ continuous involvement in economics and business management, mostly within upstream oil. Following a degree in quantitative economics and finance, an early career in regional economic planning gave way to business analysis roles in the UK State Oil Company BNOC, and mainstream commercial management in the privatised ‘Britoil’. Following the merger with BP in 1988, he was commercial manager of Northern North Sea Projects and Ventures, moving into central commercial roles overviewing major investment process and commercial staff training and development. He devised and led the implementation of various State Oil & Gas Company skills programmes, has widely varied global experience across many different cultures, and is a master-accredited team working practitioner. He now works on varied international assignments within AGR Petroleum Services.
Learn what past participants have said about PetroEdge training courses
A well structured course with useful ideas and background understanding that is useful in petroleum risk analysis and economics.
Lead Petroleum Engineer, NPCP
Great & brief clear objectives.
Manager, PETRONAS Carigali
The 4-day training has increased my capacity for evaluating assets.
GM – Asset Development & New Ventures, Walter Smith
Very good course.
Asset Manager, PETRONAS
A good refreshment to what you already know and at the same time, it’s a great course to take it further to our day-to-day job application.
Finance and Economics, Mitra Energy Ltd
Packed with exercises and solutions plus opportunity.
Production Geologist, Petroleum Development Oman
Excellent and brilliant course. Good for geotechnical personnel to appreciate petroleum economics & risking.
Manager, Petronas Carigali
It’s good to know what I never knew.