The oil and gas exploration sector is experiencing a remarkable resurgence. As detailed in David Brown’s March 2025 article in the AAPG Explorer, titled “Oil and Gas Exploration is ‘Thriving and Making Money,’” the industry is not only rebounding but also proving profitable. This commentary delves into the facts and findings from the article. It examines why exploration is flourishing, where it’s happening, and what it means for the future.

The numbers speak volumes. Since 2015, new field discoveries have generated over $160 billion in value after costs. This figure assumes an industry planning price of $65 per barrel Brent long-term. Full-cycle returns have averaged 15 percent annually since 2015. Wood Mackenzie, an energy data firm, highlights this success in ultra-deepwater basins. Exploration is thriving and making money. It’s also cheaper than buying resources. Over the past five years, breakeven prices for exploration averaged $45 per barrel of oil equivalent (boe). In contrast, mergers and acquisitions averaged $65 per boe. This cost advantage drives renewed interest.

Global hotspots lead the charge. Offshore Namibia and southwest Africa remain prime targets. Success there has sparked interest in Uruguay, an analogue with similar Aptian and Turonian source rock. All 46,000 square miles of Uruguay’s offshore acreage are now under active leasing. Shell, YPF, Apache, and Chevron hold positions. Chevron plans a 3-D seismic campaign in the OFF-1 block this year. Farther north, the MSGBC Basin off Mauritania, Senegal, and Guinea-Bissau hosts multiple sub-basins. Senegal’s Sangomar field, operated by Woodside, began oil production last year. Mauritania’s Greater Tortue Ahmeyim project, led by BP, delivered first gas in January 2025.

South America and Africa dominate emerging plays. Offshore Brazil and the Gulf of Mexico stay perennial favorites. Guyana and Suriname continue to attract attention. Uruguay’s renewed exploration follows dry holes in the 1970s and 2016. Today, industry sees potential in its offshore basins. The 2024 Energy Summit in Uruguay spotlighted South Atlantic margins. This included southern Brazil and northern Argentina. Northwest Africa’s MSGBC Basin offers more prospects. Apus Energy drilled the Atum well offshore Guinea-Bissau, though results remain undisclosed.

Libya is another focal point. Its National Oil Company plans a 2025 bid round with 22 blocks. Eni and BP explore the Ghadames Basin onshore. Repsol drills near the Sahara Field. The Sirte Basin, both onshore and offshore, draws speculation. Eni plans ultra-deepwater tests there. Geopolitical risks linger, however. Libya offers security assurances, but the industry remains cautious. High risk could slow efforts.

Southeast Asia shifts focus to natural gas. Malaysia and Indonesia lead exploration. India now joins the fray. Its government pushes investment to cut import reliance. India is set to lead global oil-demand growth over the next five years. Seismic surveys suggest 22 billion barrels of potential in the Andaman Basin. Oil India and ONGC ramp up offshore efforts. ONGC’s Chola-1 discovery in the Cauvery Basin signals promise. Additional drilling is planned.

Australasia sees slower progress. The Mailu-1 wildcat off Papua New Guinea, led by Total Energies and Petronas, targets a giant oil prospect. It’s set to spud in late 2025. A strong result could unlock a new play. In Europe, Norway pushes north. Vår Energi’s Countach well near the Goliat field confirmed oil in December 2024. Three more wells are slated for 2025. Equinor gained approval to drill in the Barents Sea. This marks a nascent Arctic push.

Unconventional resources gain traction. Saudi Arabia’s Jafurah Basin and Algeria’s Ahnet Basin hold vast shale gas. Algeria ranks third globally with over 700 trillion cubic feet of recoverable reserves. Only China and Argentina surpass it. These areas signal future potential.

Industry sentiment is shifting. Robert Clarke of Wood Mackenzie predicts growing upstream investment. Investors now prioritize reserves and resource longevity. Companies aim to reload portfolios. Eni’s Mirko Araldi eyes Libya’s 2025 bid round. Exploration rebounds from a post-boom collapse and pandemic slump. The White House’s “Drill, baby, drill” echoes this momentum.

Deepwater dominates high-impact prospects. Offshore Namibia’s success inspires Uruguay. The MSGBC Basin’s discoveries fuel interest. Libya’s Sirte Basin tests ultra-deepwater limits. India’s Andaman and Cauvery basins push boundaries. Papua New Guinea’s Mailu-1 targets deepwater carbonate. Norway’s Barents Sea ventures into Arctic waters. Technology and economics align to make these plays viable.

Profitability underpins this boom. Double-digit returns since 2015 defy expectations. Exploration outpaces acquisition costs. A $45 per boe breakeven beats $65 per boe for M&A. New discoveries add value. Wood Mackenzie’s analysis proves the model works. Companies see the upside.

Challenges remain. Libya’s geopolitical risks deter some players. Arctic drilling faces environmental scrutiny. Near-term macro headwinds could temper enthusiasm. Yet the trajectory is clear. Exploration is back. It’s profitable. It’s global.

The implications are significant. Energy security drives nations like India. Economic gains attract investment. South America and Africa cement their roles. Southeast Asia diversifies. Europe tests new frontiers. Unconventional plays expand the map. The industry adapts and thrives. Brown’s article captures a pivotal moment. Oil and gas exploration isn’t just surviving—it’s flourishing. Data backs the optimism. Returns prove the case. Hotspots multiply. The future looks robust. As of March 8, 2025, the sector stands strong. It’s a testament to resilience and opportunity.

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