Prospect Risks & Volumes Assessment

By the end of this course, the participants will be able to:

• Translate geological understanding of prospects and hydrocarbon plays into realistic numbers and ranges for calculating the probability of Success (POS) and volume ranges of undrilled prospects
• Know how Chance Factors for risk elements can be determined as objectively as possible
• Understand what the Play POS is, and know how to apply it
• Confidently select uncertainty distributions that are consistent with the understanding of uncertainties in prospects
• Understand how the input parameters for volume assessments impact probabilistically calculated volumes
• Appreciate the volume promise and related uncertainties of undrilled prospects from expectation curves and frequency plots (probability density functions)
• Understand how to communicate prospect volumes, and when zero- or commercial cut-off volumes should be used
• Understand the impact of dependencies between prospects and know how to add prospect volumes statistically correct for a realistic volume promise of a portfolio of prospects
• Determine a realistic final POS for prospects with direct hydrocarbon indicators (DHIs) and/or controlled source electromagnetics (CSEM) anomalies

This course is designed in the firsts place for geoscientists working in exploration and their direct supervisors. The course is also very instructive for staff from other disciplines working closely with exploration staff, such as reservoir engineers, petrophysicists and prospect portfolio analysts.

• Intermediate

This is a comprehensive course on Risk and Volume assessment in exploration. The emphasis is on a sound and pragmatic understanding of the play, the main risk elements (trap/structure, reservoir, seal and charge), the prospect geology and geometry. The course provides pragmatic guidance for translating geological knowledge and understanding in sound and realistic numbers and ranges for consistent risk and volume assessment of exploration prospects.

Each topic is introduced by a lecture, and leaning is re-enforced by practical exercises (on paper). There is time for discussions of general issues and any specific questions participants may have.

Participants attending this course have the opportunity to purchase the Handbook Risk & Volume Assessment (published in 2021) by the expert course leader for a reduced price of USD125 (normal price is €250).

Your expert course leader has a PhD in Geology from the University of Utrecht. He worked for 31 years (1979 –2010) with Shell as an exploration geologist in a variety of functions across the globe. As Principle Technical Expert, he was responsible for ensuring that Risk & Volume assessments were carried out consistently and correctly in all of Shell’s exploration units.

In this capacity, he led and participated in countless prospect review sessions and developed and conducted a successful in-house course on Risks & Volume assessment. As manager of the Exploration Excellence Team, he performed in depth analysis of basins and plays and provided advice on exploration opportunities to senior management. Together with his team, he visited most of Shell’s exploration offices, working hands-on with Shell’s local exploration teams to generate new play and prospect ideas and to suggest evaluation techniques and technologies to apply.

In 2010, he was appointed as extraordinary professor Regional and Petroleum Geology at the VU university of Amsterdam and in 2012 also at the University of Utrecht. He was visiting professor at the University of Malaya (Malaysia).

Through his own consultancy, as of 2010, he provides advice on exploration activities to several companies and is regularly invited to carry out technical reviews. Activities cover all continents and include Portfolio Reviews, Prospect assessment, Play-based Exploration, and Geothermal activities.

He conducts courses on several topics including Risk & Volume Assessment, Prospect Maturation, Basin Analysis, Play-based Exploration, Trap & Seal Analysis, Petroleum Geology for Non-geologists.

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